After a week of rain, the official ground conditions for tomorrow’s cards at Newmarket and Haydock both have ‘heavy’ in the description, with a little more of the wet stuff forecast too. If I have learnt only one thing from my decades as a punter, it is to bet with caution when the ground turns into a quagmire.
Yes, of course, it is best to back horses that have won or run well on ground described as ‘heavy’ but it is not as simple as that, or even those with a basic knowledge of the form book would soon be rich. When the ground is really, really soft and the mud is flying, it is often accompanied by a series of unpredictable results.
I had hoped to put up trainer Dylan Cunha’s talented four-year-old colt Prague in today’s Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes (Newmarket, 3.35 p.m.). Unraced at two and three years old when trained by Aidan O’Brien, presumably after setbacks, the horse has now run four times this season. With odds of 5-1 available yesterday, this improver looked a good bet for his up-and-coming yard.
However, Prague is now only a top-priced 7-2 and he is unproven on very soft ground so the decision is no bet after all. In fact, I am not going to play at all at Newmarket today given the conditions.
With a drying afternoon and no rain forecast for tomorrow, I am hoping the ground may be no worse than ‘soft’ at Newmarket by the first race on Saturday but that may be wishful thinking. The big handicap on tomorrow’s card is the bet365 Cambridgeshire (3.40 p.m.) with more than £90,000 going to winning connections. As usual, the race has attracted a maximum field of 35 runners – although expect some non-runners because of the ground.
There has been a gambling plunge this week on Emmet Mullins’s This Songisforyou and, when the money is down, this shrewd Irish handler is rarely wide of the mark with horses that he brings across the Irish Sea.
The form is there too for all to see, too, because the six-year-old gelding won a handicap with plenty in hand at the Curragh nearly two weeks ago. If you are on at the 20-1 that was available at the start of the week, then well done you. But it would be foolish to back the horse now at a top priced 11-2 given this is arguably the most competitive handicap of the whole season.
High numbers are usually greatly favoured in this race and Majestic, trained by Jack Channon, catches the eye at 25-1, given he won this race two years ago off a similar mark and he has a lovely berth in stall 36. He handles ground with plenty of cut as well.
However, I can’t bring myself to put up a third horse in the race and I am happy to stick with my two each-way, ante-post bets: Dual Identity put up at 33-1 and Bopedro put up at 20-1. I can’t grumble with the draw for either horse either: the former will come out of stall 30 and the latter out of stall 22.
However, although Dual Identity goes on soft ground, he was pulled out a race at Newbury earlier in his career when the ground went ‘heavy’, so I guess he is not a certain runner tomorrow as things stand.
Since a tipping column without any tips is like Christmas without Father Christmas, I am tentatively going to put up one more bet this weekend.
Trainer Tim Easterby’s veteran HYPERFOCUS loves it when the mud is flying and, even though he is ten years old now, he retains plenty of ability. When the ground came up unexpectedly heavy at Chester in June, he won a 10-runner sprint handicap at 33-1 and he followed up with another win after that at the same course a month later.
Hyperfocus has winning form at Haydock too so back him each way at 9-1 in the My Pension Expert Handicap tomorrow (Haydock, 3.15 p.m.). That price is with bet365 only, paying three places. Sky Bet has the horse two points shorter but is offering one extra place.
Finally, after two years, I am taking my first break from writing this weekly column. However, if you look below, there are already tips for both the weekends that I am away (for the Arc and the Ces). I will be back on Friday 18 October to preview Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot the next day. Happy punting until then.
Pending:
1 point each way Hyperfocus at 9-1 forthe Haydock 3.15 p.m. tomorrow, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Bopedro at 20-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 33-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Premiere Ligne at 33-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Al Riffa at 14-1 for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 0.6 points.
1 point each way Jordan Electrics at 12-1 forthe Ayr Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. 5th + 1.4 points.
1 point each way American Affair at 8-1 forthe Ayr Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total + 6.2 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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