Of all the issues which did it for the Conservatives in July 2024, no issue deterred life-long Tories more than the failure to control migration. So it was appropriate then that this subject formed the basis of Kemi Badenoch’s first major policy speech since her election as leader. Ahead of tomorrow’s release of migration statistics, she chose to deliver a mea culpa on behalf of her party, admitting at a hastily-assembled press conference that the Conservatives had previously got this issue wrong. The last administration ‘promised to bring numbers down,’ she said. ‘We did not deliver that promise’:
As the new party leader I want to acknowledge that we made mistakes. Yes, some of these problems are long standing – this is a collective failure of political leaders from all parties over decades – but on behalf of the Conservative party it is right that I as the new leader accept responsibility, and say truthfully we got this wrong.
Flanked by Chris Philp, the new shadow home secretary, Badenoch told journalists that she has instructed her team to develop new policies, including a strict numerical cap on net migration. ‘We will review every policy, treaty and part of our legal framework’, she pledged. ‘Including the ECHR and the Human Rights Act.’ She suggested in the Q&A that migrants could have their access to benefits limited and that some Home Office staff would be better suited to the charity sector. It had the Tories in the front row all nodding their heads along in agreement.
Winning over a wider audience will certainly take much more time. Having made her quasi-apology, the most interesting thing in Badenoch’s speech is what she did not say. There were frequent swipes at Labour throughout: unsurprising perhaps, given the Tory leader’s natural preference for being on the attack, rather than the defence. But there was not a single word about Reform or the four million voters who backed their cause. Badenoch’s framing of migration in binary terms is likely to be something we see more of in future, as she seeks to present her party as the only realistic alternative to Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper.
The pessimist’s view of today’s event was put simply by one Reform source: ‘It was an announcement about an announcement.’ But an optimist might point to the auspices of the Centre for Policy Studies under which the event was held. Fifty years ago, it took time for Margaret Thatcher to formulate Stepping Stones and a workable agenda for supply-side reform. Badenoch has only been leader of the opposition for a matter of weeks; there are more than four years to go until the election. Her supporters will argue that today we saw the first steps on the long road back to Tory credibility on migration control.
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