The ice-breaker at the bars in Bournemouth during the Labour conference was “when will the election be?” Here in Blackpool, the conversation starter is “is it over for Cameron?” But unlike previous Tory mutinies I’ve witnessed, it’s being asked from concern, not malice. No one wants him gone. There’s encouragement at the tougher line he’s adopted in the last few weeks, and no one can name any plausible successor. I’ve yet to meet anyone who thinks the party has even an outside chance of winning an early election, though.

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