Barnier’s dangerous assumption

So what happens now Michel Barnier has laid into Theresa May’s customs plan? That’s the question I try and answer in my Sun column this morning.

Those close to May are trying to downplay Barnier’s criticisms. One Cabinet Minister remarks, ‘It is not a great surprise. He’s been saying no all along’. This Minister’s view is that it is now ‘up to the member states’ what happens next.

But they aren’t likely to come to the rescue of May’s plan: I understand that only a handful of them are interested in it.

Barnier’s real aim, as May has told the Brexit inner Cabinet, is to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU. His calculation is that faced with a choice between a customs union and no deal, Britain will buckle.

The attraction to the EU of keeping the UK in a customs union is that it’ll keep the pattern of trade much the same as it is now.