Barometer | 7 January 2012

State of uncertainty

The Iowa caucuses create much excitement in the US presidential race but the winners do not have a good record of winning the presidency.

— In the nine contested Democratic caucases since 1972, when they first marked the beginning of the presidential race, only two winners, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, have gone on become president.
— In the five contested Republican caucuses only George W. Bush in 2000 has gone on to win the White House.
— The man responsible for moving the Iowa caucuses to January, George McGovern in 1972, came second in Iowa, went on to win the Democratic nomination and to suffer the heaviest defeat of any modern presidential candidate, losing all but two states.

Right to bear arms?

A multiple murder in County Durham has rekindled the debate about the link between gun ownership and gun crime. Widely varying rates of gun ownership between US states provide a good chance to analyse the link.

States with most gun murders

% households with gun		Gun murder rate per 100,000 people
3.8	District of Columbia	16
44	Louisiana	7.8
42	Missouri	5.3
21	Maryland	5.1
42	Michigan	4.5

States with fewest gun murders:

% households with gun		Gun murder rate per 100,000 people
42	Vermont	0.3
30	New Hampshire	0.4
8.7	Hawaii	0.5
51	North Dakota	0.6
43	Iowa	0.7

Source: Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System/FBI

Red cards

The number of arrests at football league matches in 2010/11 fell 10 per cent to 3,089, the lowest such figure since records began to be kept in 1984/85. What are football fans arrested for?
Number of arrests in 2010/11

Public disorder	1,078
Alcohol offences	1,041
Violent disorder	332
Pitch incursion	240
Ticket-touting	102
Missile-throwing	64
Possession of offensive weapon	46
Racist/indecent chanting	44