James Forsyth James Forsyth

Better than 50:50 chance that the government can get the DUP on board for meaningful vote 3

This weekend all eyes are on the DUP. As I say in The Sun this morning, if the government can satisfy them, then Theresa May has a chance of winning the vote on Tuesday because of the domino effect that them coming across will set off. But if the DUP won’t come over, there’s no point holding a third meaningful vote.

The DUP spent yesterday in intensive talks with senior government figures. I understand that these talks were broadly positive. One Cabinet Minister close to the process tells me that the chances of the DUP backing the deal are ‘a bit better than 50:50. I’d put it at 60:40.’

What is winning the DUP round is the promise of putting into the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which puts the deal into UK law, a requirement that there be no divergence between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill would be so-called superior legislation. This would mean that it would trump other bill, giving the DUP some reassurance that the next Prime Minister couldn’t just decide to cut a Brexit deal for Great Britain leaving Northern Ireland behind.

Parliament will also be given a scrutiny power over the backstop, allowing it to vote every few years on how it is operating.

At the same time, the UK government will seek to offer the DUP some reassurance about this country’s ability to get out of the backstop. I am told that if Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice had been different, then the DUP would have been on board this week. One Cabinet Minister tells me, ‘Geoffrey did cost the DUP’.

To sweeten the deal for the DUP, there’ll be money and ladles of respect.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in