Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

Beware the cult of Brexit

In their frequent moments of self-congratulation, conservatives describe themselves as level-headed and practical people. If there were a scintilla of truth in the stories they tell themselves the government would not think of activating Article 50 this week. Unfortunately, for our country, actual conservatives and mythical conservatives have next to nothing in common. Unconstrained by a political opposition and egged on by a Tory press that makes Breitbart seem like a reputable news service, modern Tories resemble no one so much as the right-wing parody of left wingers: utopian, contemptuous of detail and convinced the world owes them a living.

No practical government would invoke Article 50 this week, this month or any time before the end of the year. The next six months in the EU will be filled by the Dutch, French and German elections. The French elections will undoubtedly produce a new government with a different view of Brexit. The German election just might produce one too.

The two-year Article 50 process was, notoriously, drafted with the intention that it should never be used. Vast areas have to be covered in limited time, including the financial terms of the divorce settlement; and a transitional trade deal, leading to a final trade deal sometime in the 2020s.

But there is every likelihood that nothing worth noticing will happen in the first six months of the two years, because everyone will be waiting for European electorates to vote. The last months will be taken up with trying to get a deal (assuming there is a deal) ratified by the European parliament (every parliament on the continent will have a say on Brexit, you should note, except the British parliament).

Given that no continental politician will win by saying ‘I agree with Boris Johnson, the British must have their cake and eat it,’ surely the practical policy would be to delay Article 50 until after the German elections on 24 September.

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