John Keiger John Keiger

Joe Biden isn’t the president the EU thinks he is

Joe Biden

For four years, president Donald Trump radicalised international relations. There was a shift towards the nation state and unilateralism, beginning with the United States. He viewed intergovernmental organisations like the WHO or the World Trade Organization with acute scepticism thanks to what he saw as their bureaucratic sloth and partisanship. His perception of the European Union and Nato was little better; the first he perceived as an unfair competitor; the second a free-loading bureaucracy. So it came as no surprise that the EU could barely contain its joy at Joe Biden’s election, even if certain eastern member states were reticent. However, the EU will be disappointed if it believes president-elect Biden’s foreign policy will align with its own. In reality, the process will see Biden’s alignment with much of Trump’s policies and the EU following Biden’s.

Personality notwithstanding, Donald Trump achieved a great deal in international affairs. He dared forcefully, often recklessly, to implement what professional politicians and diplomats over many years had recoiled from doing. He opened face-to-face negotiations with North Korea’s leader, took on China’s protectionism and insidious imperialism, unblocked the Middle East log-jam by encouraging Israeli relations with the Gulf States (and even Saudi Arabia), while rattling self-satisfied and sclerotic international organisations. 

Trump’s mission is unfinished. But so much heavy lifting has been completed that the Biden team is bound to build on it. And the EU, forever lacking in strategic autonomy, will have little choice but to follow. They will be seduced by a change in tone and a new-found co-operative and multilateralist rhetoric. But even on issues close to home like burden-sharing in Nato — an old Obama gripe — little of substance will vary from the Trump posture. The first thing the EU will turn to in assessing the direction of travel will be personalities, then policies.

Personality notwithstanding, Donald Trump achieved a great deal in international affairs

As Biden’s governing team is revealed, it is clear now that the erstwhile divisions between the restorers of Obama’s foreign policies and those in favour of change have melted into a fudge.

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John Keiger
Written by
John Keiger

Professor John Keiger is the former research director of the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge.

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