For as long as I can remember Billy Bragg has been arguing for tactical voting. He lives in some splendour in Dorset, and wants to drive the Tories out of the county by any means necessary. In 2005, although he was a Labour
supporter, and on many issues was well to Left of Labour, he urged his comrades in West Dorset to back the only party with a chance of beating Oliver Letwin by voting Lib Dem. By the time of the
2010 election, the tactical vote had become ideological. Bragg declared that he was now committed to Clegg. The Lib
Dems had “the best manifesto” and he would be voting for them with relish.
Bragg’s love affair has not lasted. In November, he denounced Clegg for betraying democracy by breaking his manifesto pledges on tuition fees without showing a trace of shame.
I doubt if he will be voting Lib Dem in May. Nor will hundreds of thousands of others on the Left who were quite happy to support the Lib Dems tactically or whole-heartedly in the shires. If they vote at all, they will vote Labour or Green.
When Lib Dem canvassers cry “but you will let the Tories in,” they will reply, “we don’t care”.
When Lib Dem canvassers persist and say,“you have to choose the lesser of two evils”, they will say “after watching you working with Cameron we have decided to have nothing to do with evil in any of its forms and will vote with our consciences for a change” – or perhaps use blunter language.
The result will be that wasted Labour and Green votes will pile up in Dorset and beyond and the Conservatives will come through the middle.
I suspect that Lib Dem MPs can accept the loss of seats to Labour in the cities. Their rationalisations are already prepared – it’s midterm, the government is taking tough decisions, etc, etc. They will not be as sanguine about the loss of seats to the Tories in the countryside as the tactical voting that dominated British politics after 1992 breaks down. That pain will hurt.
Imagine their anger. There are Clegg and his chums in a disliked coalition, but while they suffer the consequences of the government’s unpopularity, the Tories pick up seats, and at their expense. These would not be easy defeats for the most tolerant of politicians to accept. And the Lib Dem leadership does not strike me as being in a stoical mood at the moment.
Expect the hidden tensions in the coalition to be out in the open by the 6th of May.
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