Boris Johnson is drifting

Tory MPs only have one topic of conversation: the fate of Boris Johnson. They huddle together in offices in Portcullis House, comparing notes, assessing the Prime Minister’s survival prospects. At the time of writing, there is a sense in Westminster that attempts to oust Johnson have been delayed; that the danger for him will flare up again after the police end their investigation into Downing Street parties or after the local elections in May. But Johnson is not being helped by the fact that many of the hints of favour or policy change he has dropped to MPs as he has tried to shore up his position have not come to much. This is causing irritation and making MPs more inclined to send in no-confidence letters.

One of the few Tories influential enough to have a material effect on how his fellow MPs will act argues that waiting is the best option for the party. He does not think Johnson should lead the Tories into the next election, yet he believes that MPs should hold off submitting letters of no-confidence either until after the full Gray report is published or after defeats in the local elections. The wait, he argues, would ensure the greatest chances of consensus in both the parliamentary and the voluntary party about the need for a change of leader.

He is not the only Tory to think this way. One 2019 MP says he’s decided Johnson should go, but his association doesn’t agree. So he will wait until after the local election results before he tells them he has made up his mind and sends his letter in.

Not all of those who want to remove Johnson think it’s sensible to delay. They point out that the Labour MPs who wanted to topple Gordon Brown kept waiting for the ideal moment to act, only to find that they had run out of time and they were being led by him into a general election campaign.