Polls come and go and the YouGov survey showing support for Scottish independence at 51 per cent should be read with that in mind. The Nationalists have been ahead before and have fallen behind again. What Downing Street cannot take in its stride is this: five years since the Scottish referendum, and with the SNP government in Edinburgh plagued by crises in health and education, support for secession has not fallen away. The separatists still enjoy a solid base of support, around 45 per cent, which delivered them 47 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the general election. They lost the 2014 referendum 55 per cent to 45 per cent and have been inching forwards ever since. Nicola Sturgeon’s speech in Edinburgh this morning, pledging to step up campaigning for independence, is a reminder that Scottish nationalism has not gone away.
Brexit has been a gift to the SNP. Although it was a UK-wide vote, the Nationalists are able to cite the 62 per cent of Scots who voted Remain as proof that ‘Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against our will’.
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