Carl Heneghan

Boris Johnson needs to bin the rule of six

Getty images

When Boris Johnson returned to work in April after his brush with coronavirus, he warned that lockdown restrictions must remain to prevent a second wave. Ever since, beset by anxieties, doubts and fear, and surrounded by a platoon of advisors, the PM has made one cautious, catastrophic error after another.

Last week’s roll of the dice with the ‘rule of six’ could well be the policy that tips the British public over the edge. For it is a disturbing decision that has no scientific evidence to back it up, and may well end up having major social consequences.

The government has decided to blame young people for the latest restrictions, having spent August asking them to revive the economy. What was the purpose of Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s ‘eat out to help out’ scheme if at the first sign of a rise in cases the PM’s hasty response is to lockdown again? We were told to get back to work, what did the government expect? Increased activity at the end of summer leads to an increase in acute respiratory infections, as it does every year. This is not rocket science.

Last week Mr Johnson and his team, as they have done many times, acted too hastily. There is no evidence to inform the rule of six – its impact will be minimal.

At Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, we have spent years trawling through the scientific evidence on the effects of measures such as distancing on respiratory viral spread. We are not aware of any study pointing to the number six. If it’s made up, why not five or seven?

The lack of evidence reflects the inconsistency in the devolved nations’ implementation of the rule. In England, gatherings of more than six people will be illegal. In Wales and Scotland, children under 12 are exempt; people in Wales will also be able to meet in groups of up to 30 outdoors.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in