Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Boris Johnson’s greatest challenge is nothing to do with Brexit

The Scottish papers carry two difficult polls for Downing Street. One, from Survation, puts support for independence at 50/50; another, from Panelbase, has it at 52 per cent in favour and 48 per cent against. The cursed percentages.

I say difficult polls for Downing Street rather than Westminster in general because the Union — not Brexit, or terrorism, or northern regeneration — is the number one challenge facing Boris Johnson’s government. I appreciate that I banged on about this as recently as Friday but I intend to keep banging on about it because a) it’s true, and b) I cannot bring myself to care about Nish Kumar.

The Prime Minister’s refusal of a Section 30 order — the legal mechanism which would allow the Scottish parliament to hold another referendum — was the right call. It is also good to hear talk about ‘love-bombing’ Scotland and hosing us down with more cash, not because this is sufficient to see off the separatist threat, but because it’s a start. Finally, it’s reassuring that Michael Gove is the de facto Secretary of State for Keeping Scotland in the Union because he understands Scotland, isn’t afraid of the SNP and realises it’s going to take more than sticking a few Union Jacks on government-funded projects north of the border.

The Prime Minister has checked Sturgeon, but he has not checkmated her. Stopping another referendum for now does not stop sympathy growing for Scexit — Scotland’s exit from the United Kingdom – but Europe has dozens of separatist movements and their respective states manage just fine. Even those movements with large-scale popular support can be frustrated by central government with limited practical consequences, as Spain has shown with Catalonia.

But the UK, unlike Spain, is not an indissoluble unitary state and the Union would struggle to survive long-term if there is intergenerational backing for Scexit.

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