Annabel Denham

Boris Johnson should trust the market to solve climate change

In a 368-page document published this week, the government announced its strategy to cut emissions to net zero by 2050 and confirmed its target for all electricity to come from low carbon sources by 2035. 

It’s difficult to imagine worse timing for the release. An energy crisis is exposing the failures of decades of massive state meddling in the market. Insulate Britain have been picnicking on the M4 and M25. And on Wednesday a leak of documents showed Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia are asking the UN to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels.

None of this has weakened the Prime Minister’s resolve, though that’s hardly surprising. For some time, the net zero debate has essentially boiled down to how quickly the cultural elite can enforce total eco-austerity, rather than a nuanced discussion about trade-offs. Parliament declared a climate emergency in May 2019, and hasn’t looked back since.

We still don’t have a clear estimate from the government on the cost of reaching net zero by 2050

Proponents of net zero justify the policy with a range of pathways that supposedly show that it is both achievable and affordable. But a vast number of uncertain assumptions undermine their claims. No one, not entrepreneurs nor Whitehall officials, can predict the state of the energy sector in 30 years’ time. The plethora of panicked interventions imposed on the market in the past couple of decades – and the crisis which has ensued – proves this point.

Consider, for instance, Boris Johnson’s belief that the 2035 target can be reached through a combination of new nuclear, wind power and decarbonised gas. Unless we build more reactors or import more nuclear power, then it will continue to provide just 16 per cent of our electricity – meaning it cannot decarbonise the grid alone.

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