Boris may be toppled by accident

Every Tory leader fears a plot against them. Their paranoia isn’t helped by the layout of Westminster, which lends itself to scheming. They worry about huddled groupings in the tearoom, cosy suppers in townhouses, and what’s said behind closed office doors in Portcullis House. It is no coincidence that before the publication of Sue Gray’s report the Tory whips were keen for their MPs to be in parliament, but once the report was released they were very happy for backbenchers to go home. MPs find it harder to plot when they’re away from the Commons.

Yet the truth is that if Boris Johnson faces a no-confidence vote it won’t be because of an organised attempt to topple him. There are too many disagreements among Tory MPs over when is the right time to strike. Some wanted to wait for the Gray report; others think they should see what this month’s by-elections bring; and some argue that they should delay until the privileges committee has come to a conclusion. MPs also can’t agree on who should succeed Johnson. And so there is no single, centrally directed movement against him. Instead MPs are coming to their own decisions.

The result is a trickle of no-confidence letters. If the 54-letter mark is hit and a no-confidence vote triggered, it will almost certainly be by accident rather than because one faction has decided to act. One MP with good links to all wings of the party remarks: ‘Nobody’s plotting, but strangely that’s more dangerous.’

There is also broader dissatisfaction about the direction of the government. One senior backbencher complains: ‘How many people who are actually Conservative are impressed by this government?’

At the moment, No. 10 is relatively unconcerned about all of this. Those who have seen Johnson recently report that he is in bullish mood.