James Forsyth James Forsyth

Boris’s Britain: How the PM intends to deliver for his new friends in the North

The Johnson plan is taking shape, with three components

issue 21 December 2019

The era of uncertainty has ended. Boris Johnson’s decisive victory has not only broken the Brexit deadlock created by Theresa May’s disastrous 2017 campaign, but also turned the page on almost a decade of weak government.

The previous three general elections have all resulted in constrained prime ministers. First, David Cameron was forced to govern in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Then, in 2015, his slim majority left him dependent on Tories who would be on the other side from him in the EU referendum he had had to promise. The May debacle left her at the mercy of — and defeated by — her own warring factions. But now we’re looking at something very different: a Prime Minister who is king of all he surveys at Westminster.

In the run-up to polling day, the Tories talked anxiously about what kind of majority they would need to govern effectively. The Chief Whip wanted at least 15, warning that on any issue there could be half a dozen MPs who would cut up rough. Others argued that they’d take a majority of any sort. But a majority of 80, and one made up of so many new MPs who owe their place in the House of Commons to their leader, changes the game. He can, within reason, do what he wants and be confident that parliament will back him. It will be a long time before 42 Tory MPs are prepared to rebel against a Prime Minister who has transformed his party’s fortunes so comprehensively (and who expelled the last lot of Tories to defy him).

This was a historic election because of what flows from the result. First, the United Kingdom’s 46-year membership of the European project will end on 31 January. Since the EU’s march to ever-closer union will continue, it is hard to imagine this country ever voting to go back in, given the likely terms of re-entry.

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