James Forsyth James Forsyth

Boris’s most important appointment

issue 13 July 2019

After being backed by a majority of Tory MPs, Boris Johnson now looks set to win over party members by an even larger margin. Surveys suggest he will hoover up between two thirds and three quarters of the vote. A Tory leader with such a mandate would, normally, start his premiership with huge amounts of political capital and be able to dictate terms to their opponents within the party. But Johnson will have to watch his back from the moment he crosses the threshold of No. 10.

Most new prime ministers arrive with a decent majority. Johnson will be clinging to power from day one. Even with the DUP, the government has a working majority of just five MPs. That might go down to just three after the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election next month. It’s taking place because Chris Davies, the Tory MP, was caught fiddling his expenses and his constituents were so angry that they successfully petitioned to have him removed. Such conditions do not augur well for a Tory victory this time especially as Davies is their candidate.

Aggravating the problems caused by the parliamentary arithmetic are two political diseases in wide circulation: Brexit derangement syndrome and Boris derangement syndrome. Many Tories are being driven to distraction by both. A handful even think that bringing down their own government and ushering in a general election is preferable to no deal, even if that might mean a Jeremy Corbyn premiership and another Scottish independence referendum. It’s still a fringe position: even Sir Oliver Letwin, a hardened anti-Brexit rebel, concedes a Corbyn government is unlikely to offer better solutions. A Corbyn/McDonnell government may well lead to chaos that puts any Brexit effect in the shade: if property rights were undermined, it would strike at the very heart of this country’s international reputation.

Boris Johnson wants all prospective cabinet ministers to sign up to his Brexit policy, so all of them must say they are ready for the United Kingdom to leave without a deal on 31 October if needs be.

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