James Kirkup James Kirkup

Boris should keep copying Blair

Having written here at least once before that Boris Johnson is the heir to Blair, my first thought on the Prime Minister’s tax-to-spend announcement on the NHS and social care is a petty one: I told you so.

The striking thing about making the Boris-Blair comparison is how resistant some people are to it. Among Bozza fans on the Leave-voting right, there is often fury at the suggestion that their man, the hero of Brexit, is anything like the Europhile they used to call ‘Bliar’. On the left, there is an almost pathological determination to believe that a Tory PM must, by definition, be a small-state free-marketeer intent on starving and privatising public services.

That latter point is why Labour people sometimes struggle to respond to Johnson. After Blair had left office, David Cameron admitted he used to dread waking up to find out what Tory-ish thing ‘that bloody man’ had done to appeal to Conservative-leaning voters. Yet if Cameron responded by moving to the right, he risked repelling the soft-Labour people he wanted to attract.

Politics is sometimes simple: if you can keep your own voters with you while you do things that appeal to the other side’s people, you’ll probably win. And you’ll be a very difficult opponent to face.

If you can keep your own voters with you while you do things that appeal to the other side’s people, you’ll probably win

My bet is that, for all the rage in places like the Telegraph today, Johnson will keep enough ‘traditional’ Tory voters on side as his NHS splurge passes, and help shield what is usually the Conservatives’ weak spot: health. If the next election’s debate comes down to Labour accusing Johnson of not having raised taxes enough to fund health and care, then you can put your money on Johnson getting a comfortable second term.

A bit to the right on cultural issues (crime especially); a bit to the left on economics (public spending especially) – it was a winning formula for Blair, and may well be for Johnson.

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