Boris won’t be forgiven if his No. 10 chaos makes him cave on Brexit

Mayhem has once again engulfed 10 Downing Street with the dramatic resignation of Lee Cain, Boris Johnson’s communications chief. He was with the Prime Minister on the Vote Leave campaign — as had Dominic Cummings, Oliver Lewis and others who have formed a band of brothers in No. 10. Cain’s departure put a question mark over the future of the others, which comes at an odd time because the Brexit they all campaigned for is weeks away from a conclusion.

There are huge issues facing the government: a second lockdown, due to end on 2 December. The procurement and rollout of a potential vaccine. But another deadline, just weeks away, is Brexit. This is the mission Johnson was elected to accomplish, this is the drama that has defined British politics for the past five years. We are weeks away from a denouement. The architects of Johnson’s Brexit strategy seem to be at war with others in No10 – and, meanwhile, the chances of a deal are 50/50.

There is a real risk that the EU will — once again — misread the British political mood and assume that the disorder in No. 10 (and the despair of the Vote Leave alumni within it) will leave the UK open to compromise on a Brexit deal. It’s quite true that the Prime Minister has been bruised by recent events and has ended up making a series of U-turns: on exams, lockdowns and free school meals. But he does not need an adviser to tell him that leaving the EU is an existential issue for his premiership. Voters in the north of England have no great love for the Conservative party and many only voted for Johnson because he pledged to deliver a clean Brexit.

This time last year, he ran a government with no majority — a government that necessarily had to make more compromises than he would have liked to reach a preliminary deal. The result was the protocol for Northern Ireland whereby, as of 11 p.m. on 31 December, it will come under the jurisdiction of the EU’s single market rules. So in the absence of a new agreement, food coming from Great Britain will be subject to border checks. At the time, it was argued that this was a technicality and would never amount to a genuine threat to the integrity of the country. Now, it is throwing up complications.

We are approaching the Brexit deadline, yet there are reports that David Frost, the Brexit chief negotiator, is talking about resigning in protest about the treatment of Cain. Michel Barnier, who was in London this week, could be forgiven for thinking that No. 10 is having another one of its implosions. The rest of us might also wonder if the behaviour of the advisers is defensible given the worrying lack of progress on Brexit with such little time left on the clock. There is no clarity on how to keep regulatory checks in Northern Ireland to a minimum – which is having real-world implications.

While the war for Boris Johnson’s ear continues, Sainsbury’s has said it will struggle to resupply its stores in Northern Ireland without clarifications. Marks & Spencer has said its costs will be higher. It takes something for the DUP and Sinn Fein to make a joint statement on anything, but this week Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill wrote a joint letter to officials in Brussels complaining about the uncertainty. But as they found out, if there is a chink in a Brexit deal, it will be exploited.

This serves as a warning to the Prime Minister now: any lack of concentration, any vague wording in a subsequent deal — or a system in which disputes are judged by the EU’s own apparatus — will guarantee further trouble. To give in, for the sake of a short-term political fix, will ensure longer-term problems. The electorate gave Johnson a mandate to walk away if he cannot negotiate a decent deal. He will not be forgiven for botching things.

The EU has been admirably robust in its negotiations. From the outset, Barnier made it clear that he was going to take a firm approach. There was speculation on the Continent that Joe Biden’s presidency would weaken Britain’s hand, and make a US trade deal less likely. As it turned out, Biden’s first phone call to a European leader was to Boris — and the American press reported that Biden did speak of the ‘special relationship’.

Sir John Major was wrong this week to argue his country is dwindling in the eyes of the world. The British electorate may be disappointing him in its recent decisions, but British friendship is valued across the world — especially in America. It is sorely needed in France, which is why Johnson should do more to support Emmanuel Macron in his new battle against Islamism. And we should extend a hand of friendship to the EU as we agree a new deal — while insisting on a partnership in which each respects the sovereignty of the other.

A deal with Brussels would start a new phase of co-operation — urgently needed when all of Europe, both inside and outside the EU, faces a second wave of the pandemic. Who now has the stomach for the trade barriers or the border chaos of a no deal? But what Brussels must understand is that the Prime Minister cannot buckle on this issue, even if he were minded to. Voters gave him a majority of 80 precisely so that he can stand firm on his promise of delivering a clean Brexit. And on this, at least, he has the clear support of his party.

Psychodramas in No. 10 ought not to obscure an important fact: Britain is ready to reset the relationship, start afresh and become the EU’s most powerful ally. This prize is within reach of both sides. It would be tragic if misjudged brinkmanship would allow it to escape now.