Boris won’t be forgiven if his No. 10 chaos makes him cave on Brexit

Mayhem has once again engulfed 10 Downing Street with the dramatic resignation of Lee Cain, Boris Johnson’s communications chief. He was with the Prime Minister on the Vote Leave campaign — as had Dominic Cummings, Oliver Lewis and others who have formed a band of brothers in No. 10. Cain’s departure put a question mark over the future of the others, which comes at an odd time because the Brexit they all campaigned for is weeks away from a conclusion.

There are huge issues facing the government: a second lockdown, due to end on 2 December. The procurement and rollout of a potential vaccine. But another deadline, just weeks away, is Brexit. This is the mission Johnson was elected to accomplish, this is the drama that has defined British politics for the past five years. We are weeks away from a denouement. The architects of Johnson’s Brexit strategy seem to be at war with others in No10 – and, meanwhile, the chances of a deal are 50/50.

There is a real risk that the EU will — once again — misread the British political mood and assume that the disorder in No. 10 (and the despair of the Vote Leave alumni within it) will leave the UK open to compromise on a Brexit deal. It’s quite true that the Prime Minister has been bruised by recent events and has ended up making a series of U-turns: on exams, lockdowns and free school meals. But he does not need an adviser to tell him that leaving the EU is an existential issue for his premiership. Voters in the north of England have no great love for the Conservative party and many only voted for Johnson because he pledged to deliver a clean Brexit.

This time last year, he ran a government with no majority — a government that necessarily had to make more compromises than he would have liked to reach a preliminary deal.