Whether one is a Leaver or a Remainer, for most Britons Brexit has not worked out the way they wanted. The blame for the imbroglio can be shared between Westminster and Brussels. Keir Starmer has stated his intention to ‘turn a corner’ on Brexit and he launches that mission today in Berlin when he meets German chancellor Olaf Scholz. Among the items on the agenda are trade relations and immigration in what Starmer calls a ‘once-in-a-generation opportunity’ to restore a good working relationship.
Macron’s credibility has been on the wane within the EU long before this current crisis
There is another reason why now is a propitious moment for Starmer to reset Britain’s standing in Europe and that is the dwindling influence of Emmanuel Macron. No European leader has been more hostile, more obstructive and more, dare one say it, Anglophobic towards Britain in the last decade than Macron.
In his New Year’s Eve address to the French people in 2020 he described Brexit as ‘lies and false promises’, a theme he returned to this spring as he campaigned for the European elections.
And how did that campaign work out for the president? His party was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, as it was in the subsequent parliamentary elections when Macron’s Renaissance party was reduced to 99 seats in the National Assembly.
It was a rejection of Macron and his political movement, launched with such energetic and expectant fanfare in 2016, the same year as 17.4 millions voted to leave the EU. Brexit has had it ups and down in the years since but more Britons still believe in it than the French do Macron. Increasingly, it feels that the only person who still believes in Macron is Macron. ‘Jupiter’ has become the joker, a man who the majority of France loathe and laugh at in equal measure.
But the state to which Macron has reduced France is no laughing matter, not for the French or the rest of the EU, particularly as the Republic is the Bloc’s only nuclear power with the most effective and reliable military. A weak France means a weaker EU at a time when the continent is confronted with so many threats.
It is now nearly two months since the parliamentary election and France is still no closer to forming a government. On Monday, Macron dismissed the idea that the left-wing coalition, which won the most seats in the election, could run the country. He is determined to cobble together a centrist coalition; in other words ignore the result of the election which placed the centrists third behind the left and Le Pen.
Last month a French current affairs weekly, L’Express, ran a lengthy article headlined ‘France’s worrying loss of influence in Brussels’. The magazine quoted one centre-right Dutch MEP, Dirk Gotink, saying of Macron: ‘He has lost three elections in a row and, in Europe, his political family is in crisis. This weakens him enormously.’
Macron’s credibility has been on the wane within the EU long before this current crisis. His intransigence and overbearing manner has antagonised the leaders of several nations, including Italy, Poland, Hungary and Germany. He and Scholz are barely on speaking terms with the German taking exception to a man so keen to lecture others while presiding over a country that has lurched from one crisis to another during his time in office.
Of particular concern to Brussels is France’s inability to rein in its spending. Its budgetary deficit has soared to 5.5 per cent of its GDP, nearly twice the maximum of the 3 per cent set by the EU. Brussels has demanded that Paris present a detailed recovery plan by October to meet this target by 2027, a task that according to France’s Court of Auditors will necessitate €50 billion (£42 billion) in cuts.
This week France’s business leader met at their annual summer conference, and the mood was one of deep pessimism. ‘The ministers are nowhere to be seen, no decisions are being taken, we’re just waiting and keeping score. Meanwhile, the Chinese, Russians and Americans are making headway,’ muttered one attendee to a journalist.
Starmer should exploit the political quagmire into which Macron had led France. The French president is yesterday’s man, and there are other more influential and co-operative leaders in the EU, such as Scholz and Giorgia Meloni, whose drive to reduce illegal immigration into Italy has resulted in a big reduction this year. Macron in contrast has nothing to offer Britain, just as he has nothing to offer France.
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