Brown has set a trap into which Tory Eurosceptics must not march

Gordon Brown looks like a moth-eaten Prime Minister nowadays. His botched handling of a general election and his help in unifying the Conservatives have been the unexpected hallmarks of an amateur, not a consummate professional. If one adds to this his unpopular protestations that the European Treaty does not require the promised referendum, it would seem that never again will it be glad confident morn for his tenure in Downing Street.

But with Gordon Brown one should always read the small print before getting too excited. He has promised more than 20 days’ debate in the House of Commons before the Treaty is ratified. Week after week of debate may seem like a heaven-sent opportunity for the Tories to demonstrate Brown’s perfidy, and to exploit his fear of a referendum that he would probably lose.

However, Gordon Brown believes there is a good chance the Conservatives will shoot themselves in the foot. On past form, as during Maastricht, the debates could be dominated by the small group of eloquent and hardline Europhobes, whose real agenda is withdrawal from the EU. Brown knows this and is looking forward to the re-emergence of old divisions that would damage Tory unity and divert attention from his own inadequacy.

The debate on whether there should be a referendum will take only one or two days. It is highly unlikely that the government will lose the vote. Although there will be Labour rebels, more than 60 Liberal Democrats and a small number of Tories will support the government. Only in the House of Lords is there a reasonable prospect of a majority vote on a referendum.

It is not to discuss a referendum that Brown is promising long debates in the Commons. As with Maastricht, most of the time will be used debating the erosion of the veto, the creation of a European President and the British opt-outs (or opt-ins!) from the Charter of Fundamental Rights and Justice and Home Affairs.