Fraser Nelson

Budget 2016, in eight graphs

Budget 2016, in eight graphs
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Chart 1: Growth downgraded. Not by much, but Osborne sails so close to the wind that every negative revision tends to knock him off course.

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Chart 2: So Osborne's new debt target is missed already. He said the debt/GDP ratio would fall every year: a target he took right to the limit in his Autumn Statement. The ratio is rising this year - again, not by much, but this is rather embarrassing for him as made such a fuss about this target.

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Chart 3: Deficit picture worsens. Again. Which happens pretty much every time Osborne stands up to make a financial statement. Here's his latest plan, versus his original.

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Chart 4: 2019 - mother of all austerity packages He says he'll make an even bigger surplus in 2020 because he's going to make load and loads of as-yet-unidentified cuts in 2019. This is such obvious nonsense that it's not even worth a graph, but here's the OBR's take on the new, bizarre  trajectory of net borrowing. The soaring red graph represents what the FT's Chris Giles has today dubbed the "mother of all austerity packages" - which people would worry about, if anyone took it seriously.

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Chart 5: The debt legacy. The Chancellor declared that "This is a Budget for the next generation." Just for the record, this is what is being left for the next generation...

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Chart 6:  The jobs miracle that Osborne spoke about is real enough. David Cameron's record on this is nothing less than extraordinary.

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Chart 7:  Oil revenue vanishes to zero Rather the £7.5 billion that the SNP had hoped for when it was planning "independence day" of 24 March 2016. Just imagine the mess that an independent Scotland would be in now.


Chart 8:  Destination: a not-so-small state Eventually, George Osborne will balance his books. And when he does, how small will his government be? The below graph puts it into some historical perspective.

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Written byFraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is the editor of The Spectator. He is also a columnist with The Daily Telegraph, a member of the advisory board of the Centre for Social Justice and the Centre for Policy Studies.

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