Cameron’s strategy is better than it looks

The number of Tory MPs set to defy the government in the vote on an EU referndum tomorrow now stands at around 90, and numerous backbenchers – including John Redwood and David Davis – have called on the Prime Minister to drop the three-line whip. Even though he is certain to win the vote, many are already accusing Cameron of “blundering” and mismanaging this affair.

But others are now suggesting that Cameron is in fact displaying a great deal of political nous by taking on the hardline Eurosceptics in his party. In the Indepednent, John Rentoul declares that “Cameron is the one who will emerge victorious and strengthened” from tomorrow’s debate: 

“He will win the vote, assert his authority over his party and appear strong on the television news. Not for the first time, he understands politics better than his opponents do.”

As Matthew d’Ancona points out in his Telegraph column, few members of the public share the Tory backbencher obsession with Europe: just 3 per cent name it as one of the main issues facing Britain today. This is the fact ignored by those who say, as David Davis does in the Mail on Sunday, that

“It is time to let the British people decide what relationship they want with the EU. It is no reason to deny the British people their chance to speak simply because you’re afraid of what they might say.”

The public simply aren’t asking for that “chance to speak” on this issue. That’s why David Cameron chastised his party back in 2006 for “banging on about Europe” and why he continues to stand against the Eurosceptics today.

The difference here between Cameron and his backbenchers is not one of views, but of strategy. Cameron and his inner circle are all for a “looser relationship” with the rest of Europe. But they understand that – as both Rentoul and d’Ancona say – now is not the right time.

And in broader electoral terms, Cameron seems to be getting it right by not “banging on”. I showed last week that there’s more to be gained in the centre than on the right, and according to Ipsos MORI, the voters the Tories are losing to UKIP are outweighed by the ones they are gaining from the Lib Dems.

PS from Fraser: In the spirit of full disclosure, Jonathan is our resident Liberal Democrat. Hence his talk of a Tory “obsession” with Europe, etc.