Can Boris beat the vaccine passport rebels?

No prime minister wants to be dependent on the opposition to get the government’s business through the House of Commons. But it is likely that Boris Johnson will be in this position when it comes to ‘Covid status certificates’, other-wise known as domestic vaccine passports. More than 40 Tory MPs have already signed a pledge to oppose them, and the government’s majority is 80. ‘It is just down to Starmer. If he whips against, Boris will lose,’ says one of the leaders of the Tory rebellion.

The policy has hit a nerve in the Conservative party. The view in government is that these MPs are unlikely to change their minds. They won’t be assuaged by promises to limit the scheme to mass events or anything like that. Tory opponents of Covid status certificates see them as a step towards identity cards and a shift in the balance of power between the individual and the state. The suspicion that certificates will be introduced to increase take-up of the vaccine is only boosting hostility to them.

In truth, some Tory MPs have long been uneasy with the government’s response to Covid. The more libertarian wing of the party has worried about the effects on civil liberties of the various restrictions. The size of the rebellions has waxed and waned depending on the situation; 53 Tory MPs voted against the tiers system at the start of December, but in January, with the Kentish variant raging, only 12 opposed the new national lockdown. In the relative calm of last month, 35 Tory MPs voted against the six-month extension of the Coronavirus Act. If the number of Covid cases continues to decline, it is safe to assume that the Tory rebellion against vaccine certificates will grow.