Sometimes politics throws up a happening of quite exquisite irony. Lee Anderson suspending the whip from Rupert Lowe, his party’s most outspoken MP, a year after the very same thing happened to him is such a moment. Poacher turned gamekeeper indeed.
Anderson will of course know that Rishi Sunak’s casting of him into outer darkness did not go well – for Sunak or the Tories. The question we must wrestle with now is how the exile of Lowe is going to go for Reform.
In an article written for the Sunday Telegraph today, Nigel Farage himself has admitted there is likely to be a cost, observing: ‘If the last general election taught us anything, it is that the public does not like political parties that engage in constant infighting.’
Some long-term Farage detractors will believe that an obvious narrative is unfolding again: politician in a Farage party becomes so popular as to threaten his supremacy and then gets chopped off at the knees. In Ukip folklore this was distilled into the single phrase ‘Nigel always wins’.
But that would be an over-simplification of the rift with Lowe. Are egos involved? Of course. Being endorsed by Elon Musk as the future of Reform clearly did not do any harm to Lowe’s already deep reserves of self-belief. Nor has the impact of his output on Musk’s X social media network or his digging out of important stories via parliamentary written questions.
Upon meeting Lowe, the first impression he leaves is of being a big and physically imposing man. He has that attractive quality of being beholden to no one – what one might call a rogue elephant element.
And yet his biggest beefs with Reform’s high-ups are political. He has become the flag-bearer for the right of the party. Maintaining a focus on the outrage of the Pakistani-heritage rape gangs is one of his priorities. The need to deport hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants and block off indefinite leave to remain for large numbers of legal arrivals is another. Steering clear of Tommy Robinson, while not deprecating the current Belmarsh prison inmate or his supporters, is yet another. Farage and his team believe that while this mix goes down well with what they term ‘the online radical right’, it is no way to turn Reform into a party with broader appeal.
They think Farage already has proven long-term credentials on immigration issues and that Reform’s potential upside involves drawing in new support from people who have typically regarded themselves as ‘middle-of-the-road’ but who now find themselves leaning tentatively to the right.
Where Lowe is undoubtedly on firm ground is in his diagnosis of Reform’s current deficiency when it comes to policy development. As set out by me recently, its ‘four-point plan’ on stopping the boats – a totemic issue for its voters – is an embarrassment. The policy of taxing green energy subsidies unveiled by deputy leader Richard Tice recently has also been widely panned. And don’t get me started on some of the nonsensical stuff from the 2024 manifesto, such as NHS and care sector workers being exempted from paying standard rate income tax.
Lowe is correct that a party with ambitions to govern must take the building of a robust political prospectus much more seriously. Farage, by contrast, has never been much of a policy wonk. His facility for broad brush strokes and killer soundbites that resonate with the masses are his superpowers.
It is also undeniable that he has prioritised his personal brand in every party in which he has been involved. This can have distressing side effects for his supporting cast, who often find themselves expected to defend the indefensible over outpourings about which they were not consulted. A recent example was his call for Britain to consider taking back Shamima Begum and other jihadis held in camps across the Middle East.
And yet, Farage is usually worth it. His personal brand has delivered spectacular outcomes, such as creating the pop-up Brexit party to thwart an establishment ambition to overturn or simply not implement the EU referendum result. His belated decision to stand and lead in the last election also delivered Reform a poll boost to which all its MPs owe their seats.
Likes on X are all very well but stop 100 people on a random high street and ask them what they think of Nigel Farage and everyone will have an opinion. Ask them what they think of Rupert Lowe and the most common answer will be ‘who?’.
Lowe himself appears to understand that fragmentation of the Reform voter base would be a disaster and hence is urging people to stick with the party.
The best way forward would be for Farage to show a capacity for growth by attaching more importance to consultation with colleagues and to policy development and for Lowe in turn to show he appreciates that the Farage brand is key to electoral cut-through.
One way or another Nigel will ‘win’ this spat. But if he wins merely by crushing dissent it will derail his long-term political project.
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