Can the Tories save themselves?

Parties don’t get rid of their leaders unless things are going very badly. But this Tory crisis is different in scale and size to anything we have seen in recent decades. The question is not whether the Tories can win the next election, but whether they can survive.

The dire state that the Tories are in hasn’t put anyone off running to be leader, however. We suddenly have the most crowded field we have ever seen in a leadership race.Whoever wins will become prime minister without having to go through a general election. It’s quite a prize. Given the unpredictability of Tory contests and the frontrunners’ ability to destroy each other, everyone thinks they have a chance.

The parliamentary rounds of this contest are best thought of as similar to Wimbledon. There are two sides of the draw, and each side will send one candidate into the final party members’ round, which will take place in July. On one side, there is the competition to be the full-blooded Brexiteer: Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab are the top seeds on this side of the draw with Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Steve Baker the wild cards. On the other side are the cabinet members, those who did not resign in dismay and emphasise the need for compromise. They are Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock and Rory Stewart.

Whoever comes out of the Brexit side of the draw will enter the members’ round as firm favourite, given the views of grassroots Tories. But it is currently the cabinet side of the contest that is the more interesting.

Jeremy Hunt was the favourite on this side, but his campaign has got off to a stumbling start. A few months ago, Hunt started to change his tone on Brexit in a way that would make him more competitive in the final members’ round of the contest.