We must do something. This is something. Therefore, we must do this. It is hard when analysing the new Conservative party immigration policy not to be put in mind of this ancient political joke.
Despite having led us all not to expect firm policy announcements for a couple of years, Kemi Badenoch’s party has just nailed its colours to the mast of a migration policy idea that has recently been doing the rounds in right-wing think tank circles: toughening-up the eligibility criteria for granting foreign nationals indefinite leave to remain (ILR) in the UK.
Kemi Badenoch’s party has just nailed its colours to the mast of a migration policy idea
The idea, promoted by the impressive young Adam Smith Institute thinker Sam Bidwell – who wrote a Spectator cover piece last week on migration – began gaining currency in December. Bidwell pointed out that by extending the eligibility period for granting ILR, the enormous so-called “Boriswave” of immigration could in theory be much better controlled. The possibility of refusing visa renewal applications would open up, meaning that a big chunk of the influx could end up leaving.
Badenoch and her shadow home secretary Chris Philp have fallen upon the idea with all the alacrity of thirsty travellers in a desert encountering an oasis. Under a future Tory government, they say, ILR would not be granted until a migrant has been in the UK for at least ten years – double the current threshold. ILR would be automatically withheld from migrants who had not been “net contributors” to the public purse via their tax payments outweighing their costs to the state.
This would mean nearly all low-paid or welfare-dependent Boriswave incomers would be excluded from gaining ILR and could therefore be required to leave the UK. This would potentially correct at least partially the giant immigration balls-up presided over by Johnson and his then home secretary Priti Patel (the official Tory term covering this episode being “mistakes were made”).
In fairness, it seems like a decent idea. Although another version would have been: We must do something. Firing Patel from the shadow cabinet is something. Therefore, we must do that.
Yet there are some obvious problems with the new Tory approach. The first is that by the time the Tories could next be in power, Boriswave migrants will already have applied for ILR under the current rules. So coming from an opposition party with 121 MPs, this idea is best regarded as posture rather than policy. Its primary purpose is to send out a signal about how the Tories think the government should be clamping down harder on excessive immigration. As such, this makes it classic opposition party tactical fodder. Don’t stake your life on it making the next manifesto.
A second problem is that very few people actually leave the UK against their will. The immigration and asylum system is riddled with loopholes and get-out clauses and presided over by an ultra-liberal judicial class: rights to family life, fear of persecution back in the old country because of new sexual or religious orientations, the onset of mental health medical conditions – you name it. Perhaps the Conservatives will announce in due course a robust and well thought-through overhaul of the entire system, but until they do, just tinkering with ILR and citizenship application rules won’t change much.
The third problem is that this policy is being launched from a position of obvious weakness. The Conservatives currently appear a demoralised force and are running third in the polls with an average rating of just 23 per cent. Public fury towards them about betrayals on immigration – more than just “mistakes” – is still running hot. Nigel Farage and Reform are on the point of eclipsing them in betting markets when it comes to which party is likely to have more seats after the next election. It’s all getting a bit existential.
Perhaps an eye-catching announcement on toughening immigration policy can drag the party a couple of points upwards in the polls. A more optimistic reading would be that it can be presented as a stepping stone in a smooth and orderly process of recovery, wholly consistent with Mrs Badenoch’s pitch of “trust me, I’m an engineer”.
Philp came through a grilling on the new policy from Radio 4’s Nick Robinson this morning largely unscathed. The nuts and bolts did not pop apart when first subjected to stress and scrutiny. That’s something.
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