I rather suspect that Gordon Brown’s fate will be sealed by whether or not he can pull off a successful reshuffle. If he can bind the Cabinet to him, he is probably safe until at least Labour conference.
Over the weekend, the assumption was that Brown would reshuffle on Friday. The idea was to move before the potential triggers of the plot—Labour coming third or worse in the Euro elections, the BNP winning a seat in the European Parliament—had happened. It would be hard to see how someone who had taken a job on Friday, could credibly resign it on Sunday night and say that the man he accepted the job from 60 hours earlier must go for the good of the party. The rebels would have been beaten to the punch.
But as Steve Richards writes in The Independent today, there’s a problem with the Friday strategy: Brown is going to France for the D-Day commemorations on Saturday.
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