The report into Chris Pincher is out and it makes for damning reading. An eight-week suspension is recommended for the Tamworth MP following allegations he groped two people at the Carlton Club last summer. This means that a by-election is now highly likely. A 10 per cent threshold of petitioners is necessary to trigger a contest; across the three previous recall cases, there has been an average of 18 per cent. Official announcement of a contest could come as soon as next month.
This then raises the question as to what CCHQ has been doing to prepare for the contest. The Pincher scandal broke in July last year; the Standards Commissioner announced an investigation in October. A by-election at that point looked inevitable. Who did the Tories then select to contest the seat? Eddie Hughes, the incumbent MP for Walsall North – a constituency that will be abolished in the boundary review. Hughes was announced as the Tamworth candidate less than four weeks ago and has already started a Facebook page to support his bid.
Hughes’ selection puts his party in a bind. He is unlikely to be the by-election candidate because if he wins he will have to resign in Walsall North, triggering an unnecessary second contest there. The inelegant solution therefore seems to be that Hughes will not stand in the by-election, but will stand in next year’s general, when the Conservatives have a much better chance of winning here. This means that some poor candidate will have to be selected for the post-Pincher contest in which he or she will almost certainly lose, given the national trend and local anger about the incumbent MP.
The smart money for selection is on a plucky candidate trying to upgrade their selection prospects. If you’re a Tory hopeful handed one of CCHQ’s ‘development’ passes, why not lose in Tamworth and win brownie points with high command in the process? Don’t all rush at once…
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