This post is from tonight’s Evening Blend email, a free round-up and analysis of the day’s politics. Sign up here.
Is the government really changing its policy on planning for a no deal? That question isn’t simple to answer, not least because it’s not entirely clear what the government’s policy is on this matter: Philip Hammond has said the government won’t spend the necessary money until it needs to, while Theresa May says whatever money needs to be spent will be spent. But the pressure has been rising from Brexiteers for ministers to make real plans and produce real money to ensure that those plans are implemented. This isn’t just so May can suggest to European leaders that Britain really does believe that no deal is better than a bad deal (as a sensible government wouldn’t want to make a mess of a no deal situation by, say, not preparing the necessary infrastructure to stop Dover from melting), but also because some Brexiteers really think that a no deal situation would be fine on its own terms.
Hence the briefing today that David Davis is to present an assessment of no deal to the Cabinet next week, showing that yes, ministers really are taking the situation very seriously. The trouble is, European leaders don’t seem to be taking these suggestions very seriously. At the end of today’s European Council summit, French president Emmanuel Macron claimed that no-one had mentioned no deal in the negotiations. He said: ‘There is one negotiator on the British side under the political authority of Theresa May. At no moment has Theresa May ever raised a ‘no deal’ as an option’. The Prime Minister will make a statement in the Commons on Monday, at which point she will certainly be asked by her own backbenchers how serious she is about a no deal, and threatened by her Brexit-sceptic backbenchers and Labour about the risks of being too serious about it.
But the summit was overall reasonably positive for May. Though the leaders announced that ‘sufficient progress’ on citizens’ rights, Northern Ireland and the divorce bill had not been made, there were also assurances that a breakthrough was still possible by the end of the year, and an agreement that the preparation for discussions about Britain’s long-term relationship with the EU could begin. So this is progress – but not much. Still, in this case, a little progress is better than no progress.
Comments