Alex Massie Alex Massie

Clegg Might Need Cameron More than Dave Needs Nick

Paul Waugh has an excellent post on the difficulties and opportunities that will face Cameron if he falls short of winning a majority. Much of the commentary on this has hitherto focused on the difficulties but Waugh is right to suggest that, actually, a minority Tory ministry could probably pass a good deal of legislation and, just as importantly, effect change in other areas without the need for primary legislation.

I doubt Cameron would want to run a minority government for more than 18-24 months but it’s worth noting that Stephen Harper’s minority ministry in Ottawa still stands and so does Alex Salmond’s in Edinburgh. Eventually, of course, the sheen comes off such arrangements (as Salmond may discover next year) but that doesn’t mean the Conservatives couldn’t position themselves adriotly for the next poll.

And there are difficulties for the other parties too – most notably the Lib Dems. If Cameron decides to go it alone then that’s bad news for Nick Clegg. The assumption has tended to be that Clegg would have the upper hand in any discussions about a coalition government but I’m not sure that’s still the case. It might be that Clegg could need to do a deal more than Cameron.

Obviously this depends upon the parliamentary arithmetic. But Clegg’s supporters aren’t voting to keep the Lib Dems on the sidelines when there’s the possibility of power. Nor, however, are they voting Lib Dem and hoping that the party will bring down the government within six months so everyone can enjoy a second election.

Clegg, then, finds himself in a ticklish spot.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in