Jeremy Corbyn is the clear favourite to win the Labour leadership battle, if yesterday’s YouGov poll is anything to go on. But now that Angela Eagle has dropped out of the race, is it just possible that Owen Smith might unite the anti-Corbyn vote and oust Jeremy? In this Coffee House Shots podcast, Fraser Nelson is joined by Isabel Hardman and YouGov’s Marcus Roberts to discuss what chance Owen Smith has in this race. Marcus Roberts tells Fraser Nelson that:
‘It’s not Mission Impossible – but it is a Mission Bloody Difficult, to put it mildly. What Owen Smith has to do now is to appeal – not just to those supporters he already has, but all of those voters – about 15-20 points of them – who are weak Corbyn supporters. In other words, to win this race he needs to persuade people who are currently backing Jeremy Corbyn to switch to him.’
As for how Angela Eagle’s chances fell so quickly, Isabel Hardman tells Fraser Nelson that:
‘She’s become politically toxic for challenging Jeremy Corbyn to the extent that some of her own supporters defected from her camp to Owen Smith’s camp because, they realise that she’d done a brave thing, but that brave thing meant that she wouldn’t win amongst the members.’
So after all this turmoil, is there anything positive for Labour to look forward to? Marcus Roberts sees a glimmer of hope at least:
‘Labour leadership contests can be very changeable. Don’t expect the numbers for any candidate at the start to be the numbers for any candidate at the end. And that is the hope and opportunity for Owen Smith’s campaign.’
To listen to the podcast, use the Soundcloud player above. And you can also subscribe to Coffee House Shots with iTunes here or click here for our RSS feed.
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