Gordon Brown’s speech hasn’t changed the fact that Labour still have to fight the Glenthroes by-election at some point. If Labour lose that—as all the people I’ve spoken to who know Scottish politics thinks they will—then Labour will face its moment of decision: will it go down to a massive defeat under Brown’s leadership or will it at least try and rally under a new leader. If it takes the latter option, I don’t expect David Miliband to win the ensuing leadership contest. The electoral college works against him and he hasn’t helped himself this week. His speech didn’t win any new converts to his cause and the weird set of facial expressions that he pulled at the end of it made him look ridiculous. It is also worth noting that Alan Johnson’s effective endorsement of him has not had the impact that some were expecting. So if not Miliband who? Well, Harriet Harman has adroitly positioned herself as the potential unity candidate. She delivers the final speech of the conference tomorrow and if it is good her stock will climb still further. I know a lot of Coffee Housers find the idea of Harman as PM ridiculous, but don’t underestimate her.
James Forsyth
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