Are the Tories beginning to edge ahead of Labour in the polls? ICM have released their latest monthly poll, which suggests a surge in support for the Conservatives. Since their last poll in January, the Tories have gained six points according to ICM, putting them four points ahead. Labour are on 32 per cent, down one point from last month. As the chart above shows, there’s a trend towards the Tories in the last three ICM polls.
The bounce appears to be at the expense of the smaller parties. The Liberal Democrats have dropped one point — although they are still on a solid ten per cent — while Ukip are down two points, back into single digits. The Greens are also down two points to seven per cent. Although the narrative in Westminster has suggested the last week was a bad one for the Tories, given the HSBC/Stephen Green scandal, this poll suggests the Conservatives are actually gaining support.
But this trend is not yet universal. This weekend’s YouGov poll puts Labour ahead on 35 per cent, the Conservatives on 32 per cent, Ukip on 15 and the Greens on seven. As James pointed out on Twitter, the Tory lead has excited folks because it’s something to talk about instead of the neck-and-neck trend we’ve seen of late. It may, though, be good for Tory morale, suggesting that Labour’s small but consistent leads are not insurmountable.
Lord Ashcroft’s poll last week also put the Tories ahead by three points, so we’ll see later this afternoon if we are witnessing the beginning of a trend or just an outlier.
UPDATE: Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll is out and has Labour one point ahead at 31 per cent and the Tories are on 30 per cent — more in line with YouGov’s recent polling. Ashcroft notes that Labour’s narrow lead and the rise in support for the minor parties might suggest the public are fed up with both parties after the insults thrown around last week about tax arrangements and dodgy donors. Contrary to ICM, Ashcroft has Ukip up two points to 16 per cent and the Greens up two points to eight per cent. Any decisive shift towards a particular party appears to be a long way off.
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