Lisa Haseldine Lisa Haseldine

Could Belarus join forces with Russia in Ukraine?

Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin (Credit: Getty images)

Next week Putin is due to meet Alyaksandr Lukashenka, self-proclaimed president of Belarus, for the sixth time since the invasion of Ukraine. This will also be the first time in three years that they have met in Belarus.

Much hooha is usually made by the Russian and Belarusian press of their meetings. There is always a ‘happy families’-style photoshoot: Lukashenka towering over Putin, grasping his hand in his meaty fist, looking like Laurel and Hardy’s grotesque reincarnation. According to official readouts, their long meetings tend to cover a variety of mundane topics: agricultural output, the state of their economies, general commitments of mutual support.

These meetings are, in themselves, nothing special – they have been a facet of Putin and Lukashenka’s relationship for many years. But this meeting will be significant for several reasons.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, speculation has been rife as to whether Belarus would join the war. Lukashenka has supported Putin, allowing him to transport troops and weaponry through the country and even permitting the Russian forces to launch long-range missiles at Kiev from Belarusian territory. He has frequently made speeches parroting the Kremlin’s disinformation and calling Russia’s victory in the ‘special operation’ inevitable. All of this has landed Belarus with nearly equivalent sanctions to Russia.

Thus far, it seems Lukashenka’s desire for self-preservation has prevented him from fully throwing in his lot with Russia.

And yet, so far, Lukashenka has remained on the fence over officially joining the Kremlin’s war effort. This isn’t entirely surprising: Lukashenka has long been known to play off his geographical advantage, wedged between Europe and Russia, to gain concessions from both.

But Belarus’ contested election in 2020, in which Lukashenka claimed a highly dubious victory over Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, changed things. The election triggered wide-spread protests and a hugely repressive state crackdown on freedom of speech.

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