Events have a useful way of illustrating changing fortunes in political stock. Keir Starmer’s EU reset yesterday proved to be one such occasion. The fishing deal, mobility scheme and legal obligations prompted predictable fury from the Tory press. But one voice dominated in the chorus of criticism: Boris Johnson. It was the former prime minister’s arresting description of Starmer as ‘the orange ball-chewing gimp of Brussels’ which led both the Telegraph and Mail’s write-ups today.
A minority in his party view Boris Johnson as the only character big enough to eclipse Nigel Farage and his Cheshire cat grin
Such prominence is not unsurprising. Johnson’s role in the 2016 referendum and then the 2019 election ensures that he, more than anyone, can credibly claim to be the enabler of Brexit. He is also a gifted penman, whose anti-Brussels screeds have delighted Fleet Street copy-editors for decades. But the timing of this fresh intervention has sparked excited chatter about a possible comeback, coming at a time when the Conservative party is facing an existential crisis.
A new YouGov poll out today makes for grim reading for Kemi Badenoch. Her party has now slumped to fourth, on 16 per cent, behind Reform (29 per cent), Labour (22 per cent) and the Liberal Democrats (17 per cent). A dire set of local elections looks to have put rocket boosters under Reform, which is clearly no longer seen as a wasted vote. One Tory MP says: ‘Forget renewal. More like resuscitation.’ ‘The Greens gaining on us as well’, adds an ex-MP. ‘Fifth place here we come.’
The problem for Badenoch is how best to cut through in a crowded market. Labour and Reform are happy to deny the Tories oxygen: last night Keir Starmer told his MPs that the next election would be all about the 'moral imperative' of ensuring 'Farage never becomes PM.' Against the inane-but-effective Liberals, a surging Reform and a landslide Labour government, Badenoch – one of the most high-profile and interesting Tories in office – risks being cut out of the picture completely.
Which explains the renewed focus on Boris Johnson. For all his known baggage, his flair, guile and sheer stage presence mean that a minority in his party view him as the only character big enough to eclipse Nigel Farage and his Cheshire cat grin. A poll earlier this month by More in Common suggested that Johnson was the only Conservative who could outpoll Reform. It was shared with much interest among friends, critics and other observers on Tory WhatsApp.
Of course, chatter is one thing, returning to Westminster would be quite another. With four years left in the life of this parliament, a by-election would seem the most obvious way for Johnson's return. But given the dire state of the party's polling, Tory holds, let alone gains, seem unlikely. For now, Boris Johnson might be content to just watch from afar – as his successor tries desperately to turn it all around.
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