Daniel Korski

Could Burma’s sham election bring real change?

For the first time since 1990, Burma went to the polls. Though the final results have not been released, most regard the election as a sham meant to cement military rule, with complex election rules put in place to exclude opposition candidates as well as interference from the junta in the campaign and a ban on foreign reporting.
 
Senior General Than Shwe and his camouflage-clad cohorts are likely to get away with the electoral theft. Nearly all of Burma’s neighbours -– Thailand, India and China included -– are willing to ignore the regime’s failings to obtain commercial benefits. 

As The Telegraph has reported, Chinese investment in Burma stands at over £5 billion; China is particularly interested in Burmese oil and gas. China also has strategic interest in its neighbour: it wants access to the Indian Ocean and has helped modernise Burmese naval facilities in return for permitting use of the Small and Great Coco Island, located 18 Kilometers from the Indian Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

India, in turn, has moved from supporting the pro-democracy forces to protecting the junta, lest China (and Pakistan) beat New Delhi to the strategic prize. At the recent East Asian meeting in Hanoi, only Indonesia and the Philippines were willing to criticise Burma’s regime.

What can Britain do in this case? Amnesty International’s Kate Allen implores the “global community” to “stand together as one and send an unambiguous message to the Burmese Government”. She lists a range of things that David Cameron should ask the Chinese to demand of the Burmese junta – like freeing all prisoners of conscience and restoring democracy. I too hope he raises Burma when in China. Keeping external pressure on Burma is key.
But I don’t see the Chinese moving on this or the need for the issue to overshadow the British visit.

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