US President Donald Trump has announced that peace talks with Putin are set to begin ‘immediately’. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that he has not yet seen a ready US plan for ending the war, it seems that we are moving towards the final stages of the conflict. At some point the guns will fall silent, and the leaders of Ukraine and Russia will sign a peace agreement. But what happens then?
Opinions vary, and not everyone is optimistic about how the war will wrap up. In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that the war’s end could trigger a surge in international organised crime, first flooding into Poland and then spreading across Europe and the US. This is a concern that has long been whispered in western political circles. Duda likened the situation to the post-Soviet 1990s when Afghan war veterans fueled a wave of gangsterism and violence across the former USSR.
Having lived through those times, I can say this: the aftermath of Ukraine’s war could be even worse. The Soviet-Afghan war lasted a decade, yet it didn’t leave us with the same level of social upheaval that Russia’s full-scale invasion has caused in Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is now nearly a million strong – with 980,000 personnel as of January 2025, according to Zelensky. The country will soon have to deal with hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened veterans returning to their towns and villages – many with physical wounds, and many more with psychological scars. They will be returning to a homeland left in ruins.
The scale of the mental health crisis is difficult to predict, but the Ukrainian Health Ministry estimates that nearly 15 million citizens – almost half the population – will require psychological support. The question is whether a nation with a shattered economy and broken infrastructure can provide that help.
Ukraine’s public debt reached $166 billion at the end of last year. It’s not clear the government can fund essential services, never mind mental health programmes. The recent legalisation of medical cannabis to help those suffering from PTSD is little more than a band-aid on a bullet wound. And is marijuana really the answer in a country already awash with illegal weapons?
Before the war, Ukraine had nine million registered firearms, with an untold number circulating on the black market. In the Kyiv region alone, 18,000 rifles were distributed to civilians so they could defend against the Russian incursion. No one knows how many of these weapons remain unaccounted for. What happens when armed, traumatised men return home to find only ghost towns and unemployment? It does not seem far-fetched that Ukraine could very soon find itself at war again – this time internally. A civil war would tear the country apart, but at the moment it doesn’t feel like anyone is preparing for this eventuality.
The Ukrainian government seems more focused on electoral maneuvering than on addressing the long-term consequences of the war. While officials frequently comment on global politics, there is a noticeable lack of attention to the welfare of veterans, which could potentially become a time bomb.
The type of peace agreement reached with Russia could easily make future conflict more likely. If the agreement is perceived as a capitulation to Russia, it’s easy to see how that would further erode national morale. History shows that these moments often breed public disillusionment and weaken people’s confidence in their leaders. During these periods, extremists and hardline nationalists emerge, calling for revenge and seeking to upend any fragile stability.
In February 2022, as Russian troops stormed across the border, Ukrainians united under symbols that had previously divided them. The slogan Slava Ukraini! (Glory to Ukraine), once associated with Stepan Bandera’s nationalist movement, was taken up from Lviv to Ukraine’s south-eastern regions, where Bandera had long been viewed with scepticism.
In 2025, Ukraine’s nationalist fervor has waned, but this could be a temporary lull before another eruption of unrest. When nationalism is driven by vengeance and compounded by trauma, it often mutates into extremism. Ukraine may not escape this trend.
Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly factoring this into any peace deal. What he failed to achieve through his ‘special military operation’, he may attempt through destabilisation from within. A large group of unemployed, armed young men suffering from PTSD could be ripe for manipulation.
Ukraine will need significant support from its western allies to prevent this from happening. Financial aid, infrastructure development and comprehensive mental health services will be crucial for reintegrating veterans into society and maintaining societal stability.
The critical question now is whether Ukraine’s allies will rally to prevent the country from descending into chaos or allow it to collapse from within.
Peace will eventually come to Ukraine. But there is real possibility that the war’s conclusion could prove even more devastating for the country.
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