Rishi Sunak’s unequivocal statement this week about sex and the Equality Act was a clever piece of electioneering. Subsequent reports suggesting that the Tories planned to harden their stance on the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), by contrast, had the air of a measure taken in sheer panic. Regrettably, this will be obvious to many potential voters already mulling the idea of quietly jumping ship to Reform UK.
The Prime Minister has failed badly in the presentation stakes. This matters. One of the chief attractions of Reform is that, for all their faults, they have never made any bones about their commitment to give notice to exit the ECHR and to give top priority to the connected topic of suppressing irregular migration. Faced with their sudden emergence into serious politics with Nigel Farage both leading the party and standing in Clacton, the proper response from CCHQ would have been a calm statement that the Tories had always had doubts about Strasbourg, were glad that Reform shared those doubts, and that they would be happy to make common cause on the matter.
It gives the impression of a desperate response from a party rattled by Reform’s emergence
What we actually got – a rushed promise of a harder line – gave the impression of a desperate response from a party which, rattled by Reform’s emergence, had just telephoned its head office to order it to rush out a policy that would sell in response. Not good optics.
The second difficulty for the Tories is that Rishi already has credibility problems. While in charge, he has gained a reputation for being prolific in his promises but pretty unimpressive when it comes to delivery. Think, for example, of his ‘Stop the Boats’ pledge, or his promise to cut NHS waiting lists. This will, one suspects, now come back to bite him. However unequivocal a commitment he comes up with on the ECHR (and that itself may be difficult – read on below), many voters are likely to discount it as more words without the prospect of much action.
This leads on to the third problem. The Tories have for some years had an uncomfortably ambivalent relationship with the ECHR. For every Priti Patel or Suella Braverman calling on principled grounds for ECHR withdrawal, there is always a grandee such as Sir Bob Neill or Robert Buckland insisting, vocally, that this cannot be an option because Britain’s reputation depends on continued adherence. This may make it hard for CCHQ to hammer out an agreed hard line on the ECHR. Moreover, if what does come out is in any way equivocal or phrased so as to allow wiggle room, this will not escape Conservative voters, and may drive a good many in the direction of Reform.
Indeed, the awkwardness goes deeper. Suppose CCHQ does produce a clear commitment on human rights, which is probably what a large majority of its voter base, which is sick and tired of the antics of the Strasbourg court, wants. Even then, the Tories may not be out of the wood, because it seems a racing certainty that at least some of its older candidates seeking re-election will still consider it a matter of principle to speak out of turn. If that happens, then electors will see a party that cannot formulate a clear policy on a matter of vital interest.
All this shows just what a nightmare the sudden resurgence of Reform is to the Conservatives. The uncomfortable truth is that, certainly as regards policies favoured by the younger and more radical Tory MPs, of which the ECHR issue is but one example, it is increasingly difficult to put a cigarette-paper between them and those of the Reform candidates now potentially available for almost every constituency. Another equally uncomfortable truth is that the Tories are unpopular and seen as tired, while Reform, despite its similar policies, has none of this baggage and offers at the very least a measure of novelty.
Until now, the Conservative party has been artificially sheltered from the storm by Reform’s perceived lack of ambition and the ineffectualness of its leader Richard Tice. No longer. Nigel Farage is right to sense that with dynamic leadership Tory votes by the thousand are there for the taking. Furthermore, anecdotally one hears of large numbers of disenchanted Conservative voters who detest Labour and would be only too happy to vote Reform if they thought it wasn’t a wasted vote. And you can see why. If the Conservatives are conservative in name but not substance (and this is how they are now seen by many erstwhile supporters), why not vote for a new party which is conservative in substance if not in name?
In short, the ECHR affair is a straw in the wind. If Reform campaigns vigorously and effectively in the next four weeks, the Tories are in very deep trouble indeed. For that matter, Reform may not simply be a destructive force, depriving the Tories of votes and letting Labour in, but could actually win a fair number of seats. For all those who tell pollsters they intend to vote Labour, one suspects few particularly like that party, and many would be happy to vote for a conservative alternative to the Tories if they thought it likely to win. This thought must be causing even more bad dreams at Matthew Parker Street.
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