If on April 29th, when Labour announced the date of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, you had told people that the Tories would win the seat by 7,860 votes you would have been laughed out of town. This result shows just how much in politics has changed in the last few weeks. The Tories have passed every test they have been presented with, Labour has failed every one. The Tories took the London Mayoralty, made huge gains in the local elections and have now triumphed in this by-election with a 17.6 percent swing.
A few weeks ago, the idea that Gordon Brown would be challenged for the Labour leadership would have sounded as, if not more, absurd as the idea that the Tories would win Crewe and Nantwich with a majority of nearly 8,000. But now it seems possible if not yet probable. The number of Labour MPs who now look almost certain to lose their seat is more than the number needed to trigger a leadership contest.
Labour is now in freefall; it is hard to remember the last good week for the government and the public seem to have taken against Brown with a passion. Brown was hidden in this contest—his image was on everyone but Labour’s leaflets. That, obviously, could not be done in a general.
What will probably save Brown is a combination of the fact that there is no obvious successor and that Labour would look absurd changing leaders again. One also wonders how the public would react to another change in Prime Minister without a general election.
Brown has been Prime Minister for less than a year, but he already looks like he is done. He is out of ideas and facing an electorate who are no longer prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. The failure of Labour’s negative campaign in Crewe and Nantwich also shows that anti-Tory feeling can no longer be relied upon to save Labour.
This result is a fantastic one for the Conservatives, they won by 19 points, and a diabolical one for Labour. If tonight’s swing was replicated across the country, Labour would be down to 100 seats. That thought will prey on the mind of every Labour MP over the Whitsun Recess. The question is what will they do about it once they return to Westminster.
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