When the Lisbon Treaty was signed in 2007, the inclusion of Article 50 was hailed as a concession to British Eurosceptics. For the first time there was an exit clause: a clear, legal way for a country to leave the European Union. Whatever concerns Britain had about the federalist direction of the EU, it was now at least enshrined in treaty that this country had a right to get out should MPs vote for it to do so. It was intended as a reassurance that the United Kingdom had the sovereign right to leave the EU if it wanted to.
What worries cabinet members about the current Brexit plan is there is no clear exit clause. Because of the so-called ‘backstop’, the UK will not be able to leave unilaterally. Even Downing Street has admitted this.
The ‘backstop’ started out as an arrangement intended to cover just Northern Ireland, and to satisfy Dublin that there would be no hard border. After months of wrangling, there will now be a UK-wide backstop. If this deal is done, it will mean that all of the UK will, effectively, be in a customs union with the EU and unable to make comprehensive free trade deals with anybody else. At the same time, the EU will demand a series of ‘level playing field’ provisions designed to ensure that Parliament forfeits the right to cut regulation on the UK economy in a way that might secure competitive advantage over the EU 27. MPs would likely have to follow EU rules on social and environmental standards, despite having no say in making them any more.
The Prime Minister will say that this is not as bad as it sounds, that both the UK and the EU want this situation to be temporary. She will point out that it does, at least, prevent a customs border in the Irish Sea.
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