The crucial number on Tuesday night is 270, that’s the number of electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. The Obama campaign has multiple options for getting to 270. Karl Rove’s map, which is based on public state by state polling, has Obama with 311 supposedly solid electoral college votes with another 70 too close to call.
Realistically, it is hard to see McCain winning every toss up state and peeling off Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire from Obama’s column which is his quickest route to 270. McCain needs the race to change nationally, to be reframed around who would be an effective Commander in Chief—a question on which he still leads.
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