The ballots for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party’s leadership election have been posted to members and few people, I think, have any real idea as to what the result will be. In general terms, as readers know, I’m sympathetic to Murdo Fraser’s analysis of the woes afflicting conservatism in Scotland and unpersuaded that Ruth Davidson’s campaign has been as good as it should have been.
These concerns were scarcely assuaged by Ruth’s article in last week’s Scotland on Sunday. Choked with cliches and boilerplate it was a depressingly thin analysis of the state of the party. “We need to change ourselves, not our name” she wrote which is, well, fine but part of the point of the name-changing idea is to demonstrate once and for all that the party has changed itself. Ruth promises “generational” change but not in any way that challenges the membership. This may be sensible tactics for a leadership contest; it’s not a convincing strategy for the long-term. In these circumstances voters are entitled to ask which candidate is offering the appearance of change and which has an idea of real change.
Nevertheless, Davidson’s campaign has this to be said for it: she is the candidate who, on a day to day basis, may be best placed to discombobulate Alex Salmond. One should not make too much of this: Salmond is scarcely afraid of any of his Holyrood rivals. Even so, Davidson has two great advantage Fraser cannot ever match: her sex and her age.
Though Ruth is a feisty media performer blessed with, by Tory standards, something approaching the common touch her advantage lies less in her own ability than in how Salmond will react to his dealings with her. Salmond’s style is often effective but it’s most winning when he’s beating up his male rivals. There is a risk, slight perhaps but real nonetheless, that against Davidson he will be perceived as being too smug, over-bearing and patronising. That is, Ruth will bring out the worst in Salmond and do so in ways that may damage his standing even if they do not result in any greater level of support for the embattled Tories.
Again, this seems a tactical advantage for Davidson rather than a strategic asset but it is, nevertheless, a useful advantage for her candidacy. There are, I think, some people inside the SNP who fear she could use Salmond’s confidence – always robust – against him in ways that make the First Minister look bullying and cheap.
Most of all, however, this race has persuaded one that if there were some way of marrying the better bits of the Fraser and Davidson approaches the Tories might – just might – be on to something. Given the nature of the campaign, however, the victor will require some generosity and the vanquished some humility if the party is to enjoy the unity and common purpose that will be required to even begin the process of rebuilding the centre-right. Otherwise internal ructions and disorder will be the dominating forces wrecking a party that cannot afford such things.
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