The debate over the so-called ‘genocide amendment’ to the trade bill raises interesting questions about the balance of powers, and responsibilities, between the executive, parliament and the courts. The amendment, which has already passed the Lords, would give English courts the power to rule on whether a state is committing genocide — should the government seek a trade deal with that state, the executive would have to seek parliamentary approval first. But beyond the constitutional questions, the amendment also tells us a lot about how UK policy towards China is likely to evolve in the coming years.
In the last year, the UK’s position on China has shifted dramatically. As I say in the magazine this week, it is remarkable to think that a year ago the government was defending having Huawei — a company with close links to the Chinese military — play a crucial role in the building of the UK’s 5G network.
Regarding China as a threat to the international order is going to become a staple of British foreign policy
But the fact that, despite the government’s shift in position, it is facing a possible defeat over this amendment that would strike down any trade deal with a genocidal state shows that the political pressure is for an even tougher approach.
Regarding China as a threat to the rules-based international order is going to become a staple of British foreign policy over the coming decades. A change of government is not going to lead to a reversal of this policy.
Already, the UK’s alliances are beginning to shift to reflect this fact. The so-called D10 will be launched this summer. This will bring together the G7 states with fellow democracies Australia, India and South Korea. The aim of the group will be to check China. At the same time, the UK is keen to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership which is not only a trade agreement but an attempt to create an economic counter to China.
These two alliances will be key pillars of British foreign policy in the decades to come. It will be a very long time before any British government attempts to replicate the Cameron-Osborne ‘golden era’ policy towards Beijing.
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