I’m told that these days you can still buy pastries which look like Boris Johnson, or drink beers with Boris Johnson’s face on the label, in Kyiv. There is even a Boris Johnson street somewhere in southern Ukraine. Though it has been described as ‘nondescript’ it’s still a sign that Britain’s early support for Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, lives on in the imagination of many Ukrainians.
The tragedy is that those with the greatest ‘imagination’ about the subject are probably in the UK itself.
For all the triumphalism, back-slapping and self-congratulation, the UK is one of the least generous supporters of Ukraine in all of Europe. As a percentage of GDP, the UK has been a veritable minnow in the European sea, with its combined military and economic support for Ukraine totalling 0.45 per cent. Only military superpowers like Ireland at 0.38 per cent and Switzerland, at 0.3 per cent of GDP, have given less, while many states in the Baltics, Nordics and Central/Eastern Europe, with whom Britain likes to pretend it makes common cause, have given three or even almost four times as much of their GDP.
The signs are that the UK will fall further behind in the coming months. Even Sunak’s pledge this week for British aid to Ukraine, which is getting lots of coverage, is only a small increase. In the first two years of the war, during which Britain was one of the smallest contributors of aid to Ukraine, the combined total of military aid given by the UK was £4.6 billion (or £2.3 billion per year). Now Britain is pledging to increase this to £2.5 billion. Germany, on the other hand, is doubling its military aid in the coming year, from €4 billion to €8 billion (dwarfing the UK’s offer). And this doesn’t include its European contributions. Elsewhere in Europe there have been moves to ramp up support for Ukraine. The potential catastrophe of the US withdrawing its support, and the need to help Ukraine as much as possible in what is clearly an existential war with an imperialist, mass-murdering neighbour, has led many states to increase their aid pledges to keep Ukraine fighting. Estonia, for instance, which has already handed over aid to Ukraine worth 1.4 per cent of its GDP (over three times as much as the UK) has further pledged to aid Ukraine with at least 0.25 per cent of its GDP every year going forward.
Strangely though, as the UK slips to the bottom of the European rankings in its support for Ukraine, it still likes to act as if it is one of Ukraine’s greatest champions. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps regularly tries to score political points by highlighting the UK’s supposedly strong backing for Ukraine – playing up Britain’s important role in training the Ukrainian army. But when asked about UK tangible financial aid for Ukraine in weapons and supplies, he is far more reticent. Recently, after preaching to the US about the need for America to keep aiding Ukraine, Shapps was asked whether the UK would continue to match its relatively small financial support. At this he balked. Aid for Ukraine, he said, was ‘not just about the money’ — and he went on to make the frankly bizarre argument that more aid wasn’t needed because the war was entering a ‘new phase’. The idea that in the next year of undoubtedly brutal combat Ukraine won’t need aid is certainly a novel reading of the war.
Of course, when he fails to commit to giving aid to Ukraine, Shapps is almost certainly speaking the words of his political master, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Like Shapps, Sunak likes to publicly proclaim his support for Ukraine. But like Shapps, he seems less interested in turning these public heroics into tangible support. He often resorts to some of the worst, mealy-mouthed language used by those who act like Ukraine supporters but don’t really seem invested in a Ukrainian victory. In the last two weeks, Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities have increased noticeably, as Russia has dug deep into its stockpiles of Kalibres, Kinzhals and Shaheds to try and overload Ukrainian air defences. Sunak was quick to condemn Russia’s actions, but reverted to the vague language of ‘as long as it takes’ when asked what aid would be given to Ukraine to fight these crimes.
For someone whose tenure is most likely going to last no more than another ten months, this is hardly a reassuring pledge for Ukraine.
At present the UK government seems to love acting like Ukraine’s friend without committing the resources needed to be Ukraine’s friend. The reason for this probably comes from on high. Sunak seems to have little feel for foreign policy and seems willing to involve himself with those most willing to sell Ukraine out at the drop of a hat.
For Ukraine, maybe the most worrying sign about the real dedication the Prime Minister has to its cause, was the flirtation earlier this year Sunak had with bringing Dominic Cummings back into the fold. When Putin first launched his full-scale invasion, Cummings was an advocate for abandoning Ukraine to him. He suggested at the time that Ukraine’s backers in the West should treat the country like Eisenhower did Hungary in 1956 (in other words abandon it to Soviet domination, at least in the short term). A few months later in the summer of 2022, he called for Ukraine to hand over much of its territory to Russia, for Ukraine to ‘never’ be allowed to join Nato, and implied, for good measure, that the war was basically Nato’s fault to begin with.
Not long after that, when Sunak launched his first leadership campaign, he explicitly ruled out working with Cummings, but clearly a few months ago he reconsidered. The fact that he would even consider bringing back into the fold someone who has said Ukraine only has ‘trivial inherent importance’ reveals a great deal about how much Ukraine really matters to Sunak.
This is now a crucial time. US aid for Ukraine is in serious peril. Congress and Joe Biden might fail to reach a deal for Ukrainian aid now, and Trump might get elected again in ten months’ time. In either case, the UK will need to step up as a leading European military power and try and organise support for Ukraine across the continent.
It would be refreshing to see that the UK is ready for such a challenge. Instead of speaking words about British support for Ukraine, tangible offers of aid would be better. Because frankly, all Britain has been offering lately is words.
Comments