Gordon Brown has no chance of improving Labour’s poll ratings let alone winning the next election unless Labour can close the gap on the economy. The Tories currently have a 13 point lead on this subject according to Populus while back in September 2007 Labour were 23 points ahead on this issue.
A lot of people in Westminster will tell you that Labour can’t turn this around with Darling at Number 11. They say that he doesn’t have the authority a Chancellor needs or ‘connect’ with the public. Indeed, the post-Budget polls found that 47 percent of voters thought Darling wasn’t up to the job and it is hard to imagine that recent economic events have improved that number.
Demoting Darling, though, is fraught with risk for Brown. Darling has made clear by appearing on Andrew Rawnsley’s documentary Gordon Brown: Where did it all go wrong? and through various interviews that he has given that he won’t go quietly. If Darling were to give a resignation speech pointing out—with justification—that the problems he has had to deal with were mostly a direct result of Brown’s policies as Chancellor then it could be the final nail in Brown’s coffin.
Certainly, if Brown were to replace Darling with Balls it would be seen as Brown making Darling the scapegoat for his and Balls’ errors. It would also be painted as Brown retreating further into the bunker. But if Brown were to appoint someone from outside his circle to the job there is just a chance that he could portray this as a move to open up and broaden out the government. The obvious dramatic choice would be one of the Blairites currently prowling the backbenches. Charles Clarke has probably been too rude about Brown, too often which puts Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers in pole position.
Such a move would obviously be risky, it could backfire horribly. But if Brown is to have a hope of winning the next election he is going to have to start taking some risks. Status quo politics will lead to a heavy Labour defeat at the next election.
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