The idea that 2009 will be a good year for the Tories is fast becoming conventional wisdom. Michael Brown makes this case in typically eloquent style in The Independent today arguing that once the downturn begins to really hurt, people will turn from the government to the opposition. But what really struck me was Brown’s observation about the two elections that we definitely will have here in 2009:
“For the first time since 1993, county council elections will be held in England NOT on the same day as the general election. In 1997, 2001 and 2005 these local elections coincided with Tony Blair’s three victories on general election turnouts – saving hundreds of Labour-held county council seats. This year those seats will be defended on low turnouts ranging from 35 to 40 per cent, resulting in an overwhelming clean sweep for the Tories.
Similarly, on the same day in June, the European elections will also be held. Again, the Tories are poised for massive gains thanks to the implosion of the UK Independence Party that clocked up over 2.7 million votes in 2004 which translated into 12 seats in the European Parliament. These should easily fall to the Tories, making for dramatic headlines about the extent of the Tory revival.” Big gains in these elections would help the Tories in several ways. It would create a bandwagon effect and calm the nerves of those who worry that the party is not as far ahead as it should be. Perhaps most importantly, though, it would probably reopen the divisions in Labour’s ranks as factions within the party start jockeying for post-defeat advantage in 2010.
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