Endgame in Libya?

Who the hell knows and who can tell what might follow if the Gaddafi regime really does collapse? On Sunday night there were all manner of rumours swirling through cyberspace. Some said the Mad Colonel was fleeing to Venezuela. So far that does not seem to be the case. Nor does the speech given by Gaddafi’s son Saif last night offer much encouragement.

We are in front of two choices, we can reform now, this is an historic moment, without it there will be nothing for decades. You will see worse than Yugoslavia if we don’t choose the first option. Gaddafi is not Mubarak or Ben Ali, a classical ruler, he is a leader of a people. 10,000s of Libyans are coming to defend him…Libyans are coming to support Gaddafi. The army is also there, it will play a big part whatever the cost. The army will play a big role, it is not the army of Tunisia or Egypt. It will support Gaddafi to the last minute. Now in the Green Square people shoot so that they show the world that the army is shooting. We must be awake.

Now comes the role of the National Guard and the Army, we will not lose one inch of this land. 60 years ago they defended Libya from the colonialists, now they will defend it from drug addicts. Most of the Libyans are intelligent, they are not Baltagiya (thugs) Benghazi is a million and a half not the few thousands who are in the streets. We will flight to the last man and woman and bullet. We will not lose Libya. We will not let Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya and BBC trick us.

We will live in Libya and die in Libya.

Perhaps this is just the bluster of a regime unsure of its next move and desperate enough to threaten its own people while also, acually, admitting the logic and persuasiveness of at least some of the protestor’s demands. You cannot accept the need for reform and start shooting people in the streets. But unless the army keeps shooting it’s hard to see how or why the protestors will return home. Even if they did the respite for the regime would, surely, be only temporary. For that matter, shooting people in the streets is also a sign of weakness, not strength. Increasingly it seems that the Gaddafis options amount to choosing the manner and moment of their defeat and eclipse. Eventually, failure carries a price. Even in authoritarian states. The alternative, as Saif warns, might be full-blown civil war. That’s something the regime and only the regime can choose or authorise.