Europe returns to the Commons — and, this time, nobody is safe

Both Brown and Cameron face separate backbench mutinies as the revived EU Constitution — now called the Lisbon Treaty — comes before the Commons, says Fraser Nelson. Which of them will end up looking like John Major in the ghastly Maastricht era?

Only one thought has consoled Gordon Brown throughout the horrors of the European Union Reform Treaty. He had always expected a mauling for agreeing it, and had no choice but to sign the wretched document in Lisbon. He could not hold a referendum he was certain to lose. So the Prime Minister knew he would have to put his head in a pillory and wait for Fleet Street’s rotten vegetables to fly. But it would end, he’d wipe his face clean and then have something worthwhile in his hands: a weapon with which to split the Conservative party.

Battle is joined once again next Monday when the European Union (Amendment) Bill has its second reading. Mr Brown has arranged that next month’s parliamentary timetable invites instant comparison with the mutinous Maastricht debates that almost sank John Major at the time and certainly did much to ensure his eventual electoral destruction. You might think such comparisons would terrify Mr Brown, who hates being seen as New Labour’s Major. But the opposite is true. Mr Brown plans at least four weeks debating what is now the Lisbon Treaty, the document which is (according to the Commons European Scrutiny Committee) ‘substantially equivalent’ to the constitution on which a referendum was promised. The Tories are not faking their contempt for it. But once it’s ratified, what then? David Cameron will not say what he would do. Mr Brown hopes Tory Eurosceptics will demand an answer from their own leader.

The Prime Minister’s aim is nothing less than to turn the tables during the Lisbon Treaty debate, hoping that the press will start sniffing out Tory splits.