Europe will affect the Scots referendum, but not in the way everyone expects

With William Hague in Glasgow this morning, the Scottish independence debate has swung round to Europe once again.

Europe is indeed going to be important as we head towards the referendum, but perhaps not in the way everyone expects.

The Foreign Secretary spent this morning warning that Scots would be worse off if they left the UK and then joined Europe as a separate country – without the UK’s rebate.

This will rumble on until the September 18 poll, with claim and counter claim from both sides and neither able to prove anything definitively.

Hague’s visit, though, has overshadowed one intriguing piece of polling data which could prove to be highly significant later in the year.

So far, the perceived wisdom ahead of May’s European elections has all been about Ukip and how well they are going to do this year.